Lateral Capital Management, Inc.

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Twitter A Failed Business Model?

The financial press often portray Twitter (TWTR) as a "failed" business model. Especially when compared to other social media stocks.  Indeed, when evaluating the prospects for Snap Inc. (SNAP), the counter-points are frequently Facebook (= success) and Twitter (=failure).  If you were unfortunate enough to have bought TWTR at the IPO listing price then the stock has certainly been a dud.  Having said that, the stock, even after an almost 80% price decline, trades for a healthy 4.5 x trailing revenues.  Alphabet (GOOGL) only trades for 5.5 x trailing revenues.  If Twitter is a failed business model, then I would hate to contemplate where its stock would trade if it was considered a success (probably around Facebook's 14x trailing sales, is my best guess).  Either way, it is difficult to characterize Twitter as "cheap" and we believe there may still be price downside for the aggressive shorts out there.